Mrs May Drags Out the Agony

Putting aside the disasters of the recent election and the very recent Tory Conference, as best she may, the Prime Minister will today fantasize in the House of Commons about 'progress' in the talks with the EU about Brexit.

From what has been released in advance, she plans to develop on the charade that she enacted in Florence a couple of weeks ago, when she spoke to much of her Cabinet, the British press and a few bored Italian officials about where she thought the negotiations had got to. She was spectacularly vague on all the relevant points about which EU officials and commentators had already asked repeatedly for clarification and specificity. She apparently intends to say to the Commons that she has now made everything crystal clear, and that the EU must now 'respond' by offering concessions.

The truth is, that David Cameron led to Tories to their surprise victory in the 2015 election by promising the referendum on leaving the EU. He confidently expected that this would produce a massive vote in favour of remaining, which would bury the Tory exiteers who had been a pain to the party since John Major accepted the Maastricht Treaty. The Liberals were removed from the scene, effectively, in 2015 by the kicking that they got for aligning with the Tories in the 2010 coalition that had increased student fees. Labour lost votes in Labour heartlands in that election, partly because they opposed the idea of the referendum. So, against all expectations, the Tories won the 2015 election; but their majority in the Commons was only half the size that would be needed to marginalise the thirty-or-so Conservative nutters who apparently believe - really believe - that Britain can survive as an independent economy in a world characterised by regional trade pacts, point protectionism and chauvinistic policies to protect sectors of the economy that are essential for national defence. These headbangers airily assert - contrary to all the available evidence - that if we boldly go where no sane man or woman would go, we will reap the same sort of rewards as the UK gained when we were both the only industrialised economy in the world and the most dominant imperial power. The sheer silliness of such thinking - or, maybe, absence of the power to think - needs no further comment.

By losing the election this year, Mrs May found herself left with around thirty MPs who are determined to devastate the economy in pursuit of their delusion. They will support Boris Johnson remaining in high office, and they are apparently demanding that the Chancellor be sacked for making reasoned statements about the probable economic effect of a 'hard Brexit'. Mrs May is evading giving a strong lead, and this will weaken her already-impossible position and contribute to the ultimate demise of the Tory party as we have known it.

The only powerful and patriotic thing that she should do - starting with her Commons statement today - is to say that the UK has been shamefully imprecise in the Brexit talks so far, to give a specific cash offer on the 'divorce bill' [making it quite clear that mediation is available] and make a sensible offer as to what would be the relations of UK courts and the EU Court in the period after March 2019. Then she should outline sensible terms for a post-Brexit relationship with the European Economic Area and defy the headbangers to force a general election that Labour would be likely to win.

The bonkers Brexiteers should be flushed out and forced to say - precisely - where the 'facts' arise that nobody else can see. Then they should fall into line to avert a Corbyn government.

The clock is ticking on Brexit, and Mrs May's attempts to evade the implosion of the Tory Party - though entirely comprehensible - are ruinous.

Britain-in-Europe Survived as a 'Service Economy'

Yesterday, I hinted at the crucial fact that in 1948 the British people generally accepted that the country needed to rebuild its balance of payments; but their interests as consumes came to predominate over the recognised priority for productive investment in the economy. Following the collapse of neo-Keynesianism, the entry of the UK into the EEC was a vital step in the next major development. Within the cocoon of the EEC, then the EU, Britain was brought within a vast shelter that [it was hoped] could save any member country from economic catastrophe.

After Mrs Thatcher had eviscerated the economy, her successors were obliged to express admiration for her achievement in 'rebuilding' it. So, as the balance of payments worsened and the material economy continued to decay, it became imperative for the European shelter to be toughened. Mrs Thatcher herself huffed and puffed about Europe's exactions - and she gained an unprecedented rebate when other member states admitted that Britain was, indeed, being screwed under the prevailing formula - then she signed up to integrationist agreements. John Major, a hugely under-estimated figure, won a general election and proceeded to lead the country into the 'inevitable' process of political association of the EEC states with the passage of the Maastricht Treaty. A significant number of Conservative MPs, who he apparently classed as 'the Bastards', recognised that a political price was being paid for an economic shelter; and several of them did not like it. Thus they sought to oppose the surrender of ultimate sovereignty to the European Union: and though Britain went fully into the Union, there were many who resented it, in both major political parties.

Tony Blair's contempt for any history but his own, and for any political principle more profound that his convenience, led him to pack the House of Lords with donors who spared him the need to mollycoddle the trade union leaders whose predecessors has dominated the Labour Party through their control of the purse strings. His cavalier attempt to abolish the ancient office of Lord Chancellor showed how superficial he was; and the scandal of the Gulf War has rightly become the basis for an ineradicable contempt for his unconcern with truth; and apparently for the lives of British forces and Iraqui civilians. He allowed the drift towards further integration of EU institutions to continue, while considering himself a 'bridge' between the USA and the EU. Gordon Brown's brief period in office was dominated by the economic crisis, to which he and his Chancellor, Alastair Darling, responded well.

The came the Cameron-Clegg coalition. The LibDems were fanatically pro-'European', so for the five years of the coalition government the subjection of the UK to the EU was welcomed: the economic protection that it gave to the UK was recognised, and as the major financial centre to have survived well when the dust settled after the great crash of 2007-8 London was proven to be an asset to the whole of the EU. Of course, French and German bankers resented this situation; but their banks had to build up their London operations to remain globally competitive. Thus in the period 2010-15 a sub-set of the service sector, the financial services, became central to the economic offering that the EU made to the rest of the world. After five years of coalition the LibDems were adamant that they needed to stand [and to crash] as an independent party in the 2015 general election; while David Cameron [with an arrogant insouciance reminiscent of Tony Blair] promised a referendum on membership of the Union hoping, once and for all, to show that the 'Bastards' were a declining and impotent minority within the British state. Cameron was surprised to win the election, and he decided to call the referendum on the basis that a simple majority was required, with no limiting conditions. He apparently expected something over 70% of those who voted to favour continued membership of the Union. He had not foreseen that the referendum could be opened up as an avenue for the pent-up resentment of large swathes of the nation against his austerity policies, against deindustrialisation, against alien immigration, and simply against authority. The more the odious apostle of austerity, George Osborne, predicted doom and disaster, so the more people were tempted to vote against the government.

Thus came about Brexit. Cameron stood down, shocked at the consequences of his actions. The largely unknown Theresa May became the surprise premier, and she immediately grasped the wrong end of the stick on Brexit. Without comprehension of the importance of the economic cocoon, she set in train a process which - if it were continued to the end - would be calamitous. On her minsters' first presentation of major Brexit legislation - yesterday - it immediately became clear that she would not get away with it. The nation is about to descend into faction, debate and disagreement that will be reflected in both houses of parliament and in all the devolved assemblies. Things are getting interesting: and the only certainty is that Brexit as Mrs May has misconstrued it has gone into protracted death throes,

Implausible and Impossible Prime Ministers

It remains unfashionable, especially in Tory circles, to suggest that the financial crash of 2007-8 was an inevitable outcome of 'Thatcherism'; but it was. It is obvious, in all but tightly Tory circles, to recognise the Grenfell Tower disaster as an outcome of 'Thatcherism'. The stubborn stupidity of the leader of Kensington and Chelsea Council is typical of the Thatcherite brood, three generations on from the real thing.

The parenthetic use of the lady's name is to emphasise that, in my view, she did not know what she was doing. Thanks to Sir Keith Joseph she was one of the first politicians to be introduced to the ideas that were just becoming significant in Economics. This was in the middle nineteen-seventies, when she became leader of the Conservative party amid the chaos that followed the bizarre misapplication of Keynes's theories by the self-styled 'Neo-Keynesians' who set up the inflationary chaos that make the economy unmanageable and the state virtually ungovernable by 1975. The new theory of 'rational markets' that has now become the impenetrable dogma of the Econocracy [as explained in earlier blogs] was the intellectual justification for the rush to deregulation, denationalisation and diminution of government which became central to her politics. That there was a powerful and developing academic community supporting her actions was enough for the Iron Lady, who was not herself an intellectual giant. She had tremendous qualities of drive, determination and sheer willpower, which she imposed on a largely-uncomprehending and spectacularly supine Cabinet.

Deregulation and cheeseparing in government, assisted by a cynical recognition among people like many of the Tories of Kensington that the largely-migrant population of the tower blocks were not keen to attract the interest of the authorities, are the direct causes of the Grenfell tragedy. Thus it can be seen as a direct outcome of the Thatcherite implementation of the daft dogma that also gave us the crash and the systematic weakening of the bonds of British society through the implementation of Osbornian 'austerity' in combination with the mania for 'deregulation' and cheapness in public services and amenities.

This disaster has come on Mrs May's watch, and her failure to comprehend it has been seen by the entire nation. The at-least-equally comprehensive failure by the Borough Council has been less prominently noticed by the media because of the ability to blame the government, and - above all - its head. Even if Mrs May displayed any comprehension of the risks that attach to Brexit, her failure for several days to face up to the Grenfell Tower situation has shown her unfit for office. As this tragedy has even driven the Brexit talks off the front pages for several days it has made it ever more inevitable that the intellectual and empathic resources in Downing Street are not up to scratch.

So now the search is on for a new Prime Minister. In Tory minds, it has to be a Tory: the party dare not face an election. Boris, as the papers say in setting him aside as 'too risky', "is Boris". Philip Hammond, a dull fish if ever there was one, seems to be emerging as the favourite; but he could turn out OK.

Anthony Eden was seen as a golden boy in the nineteen-thirties, and was Conservative 'heir apparent' to Churchill from 1940 for over a dozen years before he finally became a disastrous Prime Minister who was carted off to the Caribbean after a 'breakdown'. The Earl of Home was almost competent, when the nation faced  Macmillan's choice of a successor. John Major was constantly harassed; but he won a general election convincingly and was later chosen chosen by the royal family to serve as Trustee for the inheritance of Princess Diana's sons: probably the biggest vote of confidence a Prime Minister can get. Major was a success; May is a failure.For four decades Thatcher been seen [at least, on her own side] as a success: how bizarre is that? We are just beginning to realise.

So whether the Tories next opt for Hammond or Gove or Rudd or Johnson [or any of the others who are mentioned in today's papers], the fitness of that person for the office will only become apparent in the event.

Gift of the Gab?

The few students in my generation who learned some German were intrigued to find that Gift in German means poison in English. It is the sort of arcane fact that occurs to one in later life when someone who has made a reputation by oratory overexposes their acquired facility to a degree that becomes damaging. The most conspicuous case in recent British history is Neil Kinnoch who talked Labour out of credibility in the high Thatcher years and then lost the election that followed the fall of the Iron Lady in a single inarticulate wail at a premature celebration rally in Sheffield. In explaining the Tories' surprise victory academic analysts emphasised the fresh simple honest image projected by the new Conservative leader, John Major [hard to believe that now, is it not?]; and the refusal of the Labour shadow  Chancellor, John Smith, to answer any direct question as to what taxes he would impose if he was in a position to do so. Analysts in the saloon bar had not doubt that the 'Welsh windbag' had simply got his cum-uppance. He was rewarded with a role as an EU Commissioner and a peerage, after which he was paid to pose as an elder statesman.

The most remarkable windbag - or oratorical genius, depending on the commentator's point of view - now active in the global political system is the current President of the United States. Obama appeared from nowhere to serve two years on the US Senate and went straight into the race for the Democrat presidential nomination. He talked himself into it, and into the White House, where he has continued to talk with remarkable facility. His many enemies claim that he was not born in the USA, that no school friends have been identified, that his income in significant periods of his life has not been attributable and that his university grades seem to be inaccssible: these and many even more far-fetched accusations have been brushed aside. He talks on: about anything and everything. The less impact his admonitions and assertions have, the more assertively he talks on. Meanwhile the United States has marched steadily towards an economic precipice as the public debt [just of the Federal Government] has reached $15 trillion: fifteen thousand billion. The Democrats have cheered Obama on as his adherents have brought in massively costly schemes for universal medical care and have maintained social welfare spending at the same time as they have approved massive spending plans for infrastructure investments designed to stimulate economic growth. The Republicans have become increasingly intransigent in opposing the government's plans.

American politics have reached a stalemate that is potentially ruinous in the current world context. The European crisis is apparently worsening. The dominance of the west is widely proclaimed. The west is patently incapable of addressing its problems with efficiency and intelligence: and the great stumbling block is democracy. The US Constitution and the people it has placed in office have combined to make a complete impasse. The ambiguities of the Treaties that bind the European Union, and the fudges and half-truths by which they have been implemented, have created a morass through which no known path exists. The USA and Western Europe have proclaimed the advantages of democracy as a universal exemplar for the rest of the world: and it has produced the toxic combination of economic disaster and political impotence. When the causes of this fiasco are analysed it becomes clear that is has obviously been accumulating for at least forty years. The shining success of Canada and Australia is not sufficient to justify democratic economic policy to a sceptical world that is doing better with different political structures.

The reasonably articulate Prime Minister of the United Kingdom made his excuse for his own incomprehension of the surrounding reality at the Confederation of British Industry conference yesterday. He declared that nobody had foreseen in 2010 how bad the economic situation would be in 2011. This was his excuse for the fact that his government could not now meet its schedule for reducing the rate of annual aggregation of national debt. The carefully chosen gang of Economists who staff the shiny new Office of Budget Responsibility predicted that the situation was to be eased by economic growth that is patently not happening. They predicted that the private sector would quickly offset the loss of jobs in the public sector, which has not occurred. Cameron and Osborne [the Chancellor of the Exchequer] have spent a year and a half bumptiously parroting those failed predictions. Their opponents in the Labour Party have also seen 'growth' as the panacea, arguing the absurd might-have-been that more growth would have happened if the government had not made the modest reduction that it has implemented in borrowing. It is more likely that higher borrowing by the British state would have brought forward the date when it has to offer a higher interest rate on its borrowing. Cameron's admission that the economy is not delivering the hoped-for growth is a belated recognition of the cor-blimey-obvious that the people who spend less that they used to in the saloon bar have been saying throughout the wasted year of coalition fudge.

Cameron is wrong to say that the better-informed counter-view to the official line was not available when he came into office. I am an outlier in having made the point in my small corner for more than forty years; but I have never been alone and will soon be in the majority. None of us wants to gloat over the abject national failure that democracy has brought upon us. Democracy is still the least-bad form of government;  but is now in the painful situation that extra-democratic measures may be necessary to address the economic crisis: and that could put the future of the free society in unprecedented danger.