Gideon Osborne thinks that he is very clever; and even he is impressed by his cleverness in orchestrating the announcement that many tens of billions of pounds are to be invested in infrastructure projects in the UK.
It was a principle of Political Economy that the primary function of an economy is to maintain its people to the highest possible level of comfort; and that this could only be assured in the future if enough of the national product was invested today. The principal reason why Political Economy was known as the 'dismal science' was because of its insistence on setting aside at least what was necessary for investment. That was an overriding constraint on consumption.
Gideon thinks he has pulled off the ultimate defiance of Political Economy, by continuing with growing payments for civil servants and beneficiaries of the welfare state. Normally this would mean that the infrastructure continued to decline and become more out-of-date. But the great genius is getting foreigners - and the Chinese in particular - to put just a little of their accumulated trade surplus into British railways and other essential systems.
The British users will have to pay the alien owners for the use of those services in perpetuity: the cash will syphon out of the country after direct costs have been met within the UK. The profit - which should be available for re-investment, had the projects been British-owned - will be allocable by the Chinese to whatever investments they deem appropriate, wherever in the world these occur. Given the balance of the British economy, this is likely to be a permanent situation.
Isn't Gideon a clever boy!
Economics is fundamentally unscientific. The economic crisis has speeded the shift of power to emergent economies. In Britain and the USA the theory of 'rational markets' removed controls from the finance sector, and things can still get yet worse. Read my book, No Confidence: The Brexit Vote and Economics - http://amzn.eu/ayGznkp
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Tuesday, 28 October 2014
Monday, 27 October 2014
Scruffy Politics
BBC Radio 4 carried yesterday [October 26] a Profile or Sir Andrew - soon to be Lord - Green, a co-founder of Migration Watch.
The programme was concerned both with the man's character - obviously impeccable - and a widespread concern about large numbers of NON-EUROPEAN immigrants who are increasingly disinclined to assimilate to the British Democratic way of life. No concern at all was expressed about a 'flood' of EU migrants 'swamping' towns in the UK.
Politicians of all parties appear to be desperately anxious to focus on the NUMBER of European migrants; and to pretend that this numerical issue - and not the formation of ghettoes by determined aliens - is the matter of concern that voters place high on their list of concerns.
We have been shown with dramatic clarity that local government and the police concealed appalling crimes in order to avoid being seen as 'racist' or risking undermining 'multiculturalism'. The silence from the front benches of both houses of parliament on this deep issue is remarkable. Unless it is addressed properly and frankly, it will eventually explode.
The programme was concerned both with the man's character - obviously impeccable - and a widespread concern about large numbers of NON-EUROPEAN immigrants who are increasingly disinclined to assimilate to the British Democratic way of life. No concern at all was expressed about a 'flood' of EU migrants 'swamping' towns in the UK.
Politicians of all parties appear to be desperately anxious to focus on the NUMBER of European migrants; and to pretend that this numerical issue - and not the formation of ghettoes by determined aliens - is the matter of concern that voters place high on their list of concerns.
We have been shown with dramatic clarity that local government and the police concealed appalling crimes in order to avoid being seen as 'racist' or risking undermining 'multiculturalism'. The silence from the front benches of both houses of parliament on this deep issue is remarkable. Unless it is addressed properly and frankly, it will eventually explode.
Sunday, 26 October 2014
Temper, Temper!
Gideon Osborne has been running around all year bragging about Britain's spectacular [relative] economic growth rate. This is contrasted especially with rates of growth in the EU, and even more specifically with the countries in the eurozone. Cameron has not been far behind in his boasting on the same point.
Now that this is transferred into a recalculation of the bill to be compliant with the obligation to contribute pro rata to the costs of the EU, the British government wants to deny that their country's economic performance justifies a bigger bill. This is an example of seriously shabby politics.
But there is an even more worrying aspect to this situation. If Cameron thinks that by putting on a fake show of anger he will impress anybody, he is sorely deceived; but if he genuinely was as angry as he seemed to be during the past week that is truly alarming. A man with such infantile tantrums should not be allowed to drive a car, let alone conduct the affairs of a great country. Over the past 300 years virtually all the powers of the Crown have come to be exercised by the prime minister, along with several new powers that never resided in the monarch. Such an aggregation of power can only safely be managed with modesty and calm deliberation: it would appear that Cameron has shown himself quite unfit for office.
Now that this is transferred into a recalculation of the bill to be compliant with the obligation to contribute pro rata to the costs of the EU, the British government wants to deny that their country's economic performance justifies a bigger bill. This is an example of seriously shabby politics.
But there is an even more worrying aspect to this situation. If Cameron thinks that by putting on a fake show of anger he will impress anybody, he is sorely deceived; but if he genuinely was as angry as he seemed to be during the past week that is truly alarming. A man with such infantile tantrums should not be allowed to drive a car, let alone conduct the affairs of a great country. Over the past 300 years virtually all the powers of the Crown have come to be exercised by the prime minister, along with several new powers that never resided in the monarch. Such an aggregation of power can only safely be managed with modesty and calm deliberation: it would appear that Cameron has shown himself quite unfit for office.
Friday, 24 October 2014
Cameron and the European Union
In a brief soundbite this morning, Nigel Farrage said it all. David Cameron has absolutely no discretion about paying the new sum of contribution demanded by the EU from the UK. Cameron's Tory predecessors Heath, Thatcher and Major took Britain deeper and deeper into the Union: this is only a Tory achievement. The country is in the club. The rules are the rules. Nine countries have had bill increases; nineteen have had rebates; each country has one vote: so the logic is inescapable.
Where does this calculation come from? From the Commission, acting on the basis of economic statistics. Prostitution, drugs trading and some other illicit activities are now counted in national income figures, so Britain's officially-recorded turnover has been inflated - and this is counted back to 1995. In most years between 1995 to 2008 Britain was booming, relative to many European countries; and in the past two years recorded growth has exceeded other EU countries. When all the data are aggregated, Britain is credited with greater economic turnover than was formerly recognised; while other countries' results are scaled down: the arithmetic is unassailable, given the parameters within which it is computed.
Cameron can only make a bigger fool of himself by continuing the anger game that is already a national embarrassment.
This incident demonstrates Britain's impotence very clearly. The chances of pulling the country out of the EU without massive economic and constitutional damage are nil. Cameron's re-negotiation is most unlikely to happen, because his chance of gaining power in the next General Election is diminishing daily. But if it did happen, it could not make any significant changes to Britain's role or status in the Union: while the risks attendant on departure from the Union would starkly be revealed.
I was an active member of the GET BRITAIN OUT campaign in the one referendum we have had. I loathe the bureaucracy and the interventionism of Brussels, and the passage of so much unnecessary legislation cast in alien legal forms. I desperately wish that we were an Associate, and not a Member of the Union: but that is pipedreaming. We are in, up to our collective neck; and there is no easy way out.
Where does this calculation come from? From the Commission, acting on the basis of economic statistics. Prostitution, drugs trading and some other illicit activities are now counted in national income figures, so Britain's officially-recorded turnover has been inflated - and this is counted back to 1995. In most years between 1995 to 2008 Britain was booming, relative to many European countries; and in the past two years recorded growth has exceeded other EU countries. When all the data are aggregated, Britain is credited with greater economic turnover than was formerly recognised; while other countries' results are scaled down: the arithmetic is unassailable, given the parameters within which it is computed.
Cameron can only make a bigger fool of himself by continuing the anger game that is already a national embarrassment.
This incident demonstrates Britain's impotence very clearly. The chances of pulling the country out of the EU without massive economic and constitutional damage are nil. Cameron's re-negotiation is most unlikely to happen, because his chance of gaining power in the next General Election is diminishing daily. But if it did happen, it could not make any significant changes to Britain's role or status in the Union: while the risks attendant on departure from the Union would starkly be revealed.
I was an active member of the GET BRITAIN OUT campaign in the one referendum we have had. I loathe the bureaucracy and the interventionism of Brussels, and the passage of so much unnecessary legislation cast in alien legal forms. I desperately wish that we were an Associate, and not a Member of the Union: but that is pipedreaming. We are in, up to our collective neck; and there is no easy way out.
Friday, 17 October 2014
The Greater Scandal
The Chief Constable of Greater Manchester has rightly been pilloried this week for admitting that his force has been inadequate in persuing cases of abuse and rape of children by gangs, mostly composed of ethnic-minority men.
One part of his interview that has generally been ignored by the press has been his suggestion that the way the courts are managed means that it is extremely difficult to get convictions. The young people who have been victimised are unsophisticated and largely inarticulate; so defending Counsel have scant difficulty is demolishing their evidence.
But that is surely the greater offence. The adversarial court system works diirectly against the weak. The Bar - supposedly one of the greatest professions - is at its raw edge a vicious racket. Judges, almost all of whom are drawn from the ranks of Barristers, are tolerant of behaviour by their colleagues that amounts to a denial of justice to the victims of abuse.
All the great talk about the 'glory' of English [and Welsh] Justice is fundamentally false. As long as the self-opinionated great men [and women] of the profession fail to recognise quite how disgraceful is the habitual conduct of some of their colleagues they will not earn the respect of their fellow citizens. Charles Dickens recognised the fundamental rottenness of the judical system almost two centuries ago: and nothing has improved since then.
One part of his interview that has generally been ignored by the press has been his suggestion that the way the courts are managed means that it is extremely difficult to get convictions. The young people who have been victimised are unsophisticated and largely inarticulate; so defending Counsel have scant difficulty is demolishing their evidence.
But that is surely the greater offence. The adversarial court system works diirectly against the weak. The Bar - supposedly one of the greatest professions - is at its raw edge a vicious racket. Judges, almost all of whom are drawn from the ranks of Barristers, are tolerant of behaviour by their colleagues that amounts to a denial of justice to the victims of abuse.
All the great talk about the 'glory' of English [and Welsh] Justice is fundamentally false. As long as the self-opinionated great men [and women] of the profession fail to recognise quite how disgraceful is the habitual conduct of some of their colleagues they will not earn the respect of their fellow citizens. Charles Dickens recognised the fundamental rottenness of the judical system almost two centuries ago: and nothing has improved since then.
Tuesday, 14 October 2014
Scraping the Barrel [Again]
Two items of sad news in two days.
Yesterday it was confirmed that the UK government hoped to get around £300 million from a sale of its 40% stake in Eurostar. The money is supposedly being used to 'reduce the deficit' [presumably they actually mean the state's accumulated debt] - which was increased by billions just a few months ago when the EU insisted that Network Rail's debt should be added to the national aggregate. It is now likely that either in the immediate future, or a few years down the line, the whole ownership of the cross-channel link will pass into foreign hands. That doesn't seem to worry the government, which has allowed alien takeovers of British brands in the food and drink sectors worth over £4 billion in the past year alone. The fact that British buyers of the affected brands will be paying toll to aliens in perpetuity is of no consideration.
Today it is announced that people over 55 years of age will be able to draw from their accumulated 'pension pots' as often as they like, to whatever extent they like, provided they pay their marginal rate of income tax on 75% of what they draw. No doubt the unstated objective is to encourage people to draw down - and spend - some money between now and the election in May next year, and thus inflate the fake boom that is being engineered. As most 'pension pots' are too small to provide a decent supplement to the state old-age pension if they are held in reserve until retirement [the date for which is being pushed back] the probability that future pensioners will be abjectly dependent on the state pension and the benefits system is increased.
Government policy continues blindly to denude the economy of resources which could - under decent management - improve the future prospects of the nation.
Yesterday it was confirmed that the UK government hoped to get around £300 million from a sale of its 40% stake in Eurostar. The money is supposedly being used to 'reduce the deficit' [presumably they actually mean the state's accumulated debt] - which was increased by billions just a few months ago when the EU insisted that Network Rail's debt should be added to the national aggregate. It is now likely that either in the immediate future, or a few years down the line, the whole ownership of the cross-channel link will pass into foreign hands. That doesn't seem to worry the government, which has allowed alien takeovers of British brands in the food and drink sectors worth over £4 billion in the past year alone. The fact that British buyers of the affected brands will be paying toll to aliens in perpetuity is of no consideration.
Today it is announced that people over 55 years of age will be able to draw from their accumulated 'pension pots' as often as they like, to whatever extent they like, provided they pay their marginal rate of income tax on 75% of what they draw. No doubt the unstated objective is to encourage people to draw down - and spend - some money between now and the election in May next year, and thus inflate the fake boom that is being engineered. As most 'pension pots' are too small to provide a decent supplement to the state old-age pension if they are held in reserve until retirement [the date for which is being pushed back] the probability that future pensioners will be abjectly dependent on the state pension and the benefits system is increased.
Government policy continues blindly to denude the economy of resources which could - under decent management - improve the future prospects of the nation.
Saturday, 11 October 2014
The EU, Immigration and Taboo
It is now permissible in the UK to become engaged in a debate as to whether the mass migration of mostly-young, willing workers from the EU has reduced both the job prospects and the wages of native British workers.
The other immigration issue remains one for whispered conversations and low-keen chatter in pubs. This is the issue of non-white immigration, and within that the particular situation of the benefits system. There is a suggestion that the people who issue benefits share with the South Yorkkshire Police - and many other forces - a paranoia of being classified as 'racist'. Hence it is understood that in many towns and cities first, second and even third generation benefit dependents are able to make their claims and receive payments all in their alien native language: the public administration system is said to be franchised out to the immigrant community; with a licence to be less rigourous in assessing claims than are those dealing with native white Britons.
Furthermore, it is a matter of observation that many urban MPs - most of them Labour - spend a huge amount of their surgery time and administrative effort on non-EU immigration cases.
This is all alienating the descendents of the former working class. They are no longer vote fodder for the Labour machine. It is impossible to assess where this will go: but there is a risk that Labour could become the party of non-white minorities.
For most of those alienated people, voting Tory is impossible. The Thatcherite destruction of industries and of employment, combined with policies seen as largely antisocial, have created a spectral vision of the Tories that would take several more generations to remove. David Cameron's accent - combined with Gideon's sneer - maintains the barrier.
Clegg has shot the credibility of his party to pieces. The greens offer declining living standards and unaffordable electricity.
Nobody knows what UKIP offer: they have no economic policy to speak of. But they do offer a vote on the EU; and they do not totally avoid talking about immigration. That is enough to made them 'different': better, perhaps, than the establishment devils that you do know have let you down.
The other immigration issue remains one for whispered conversations and low-keen chatter in pubs. This is the issue of non-white immigration, and within that the particular situation of the benefits system. There is a suggestion that the people who issue benefits share with the South Yorkkshire Police - and many other forces - a paranoia of being classified as 'racist'. Hence it is understood that in many towns and cities first, second and even third generation benefit dependents are able to make their claims and receive payments all in their alien native language: the public administration system is said to be franchised out to the immigrant community; with a licence to be less rigourous in assessing claims than are those dealing with native white Britons.
Furthermore, it is a matter of observation that many urban MPs - most of them Labour - spend a huge amount of their surgery time and administrative effort on non-EU immigration cases.
This is all alienating the descendents of the former working class. They are no longer vote fodder for the Labour machine. It is impossible to assess where this will go: but there is a risk that Labour could become the party of non-white minorities.
For most of those alienated people, voting Tory is impossible. The Thatcherite destruction of industries and of employment, combined with policies seen as largely antisocial, have created a spectral vision of the Tories that would take several more generations to remove. David Cameron's accent - combined with Gideon's sneer - maintains the barrier.
Clegg has shot the credibility of his party to pieces. The greens offer declining living standards and unaffordable electricity.
Nobody knows what UKIP offer: they have no economic policy to speak of. But they do offer a vote on the EU; and they do not totally avoid talking about immigration. That is enough to made them 'different': better, perhaps, than the establishment devils that you do know have let you down.
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