Carney in Jackson Hole

Mark Carney is due soon to return to Canada and make a political career in an environment free of worries about the pound sterling, the European Union and Theresa May. While Trump survives in the US presidency there will be a small risk for Canada in the future of the North American Free Trade Area, but in other respects Trump cannot hurt Canada; and if his failures drive down the value of the US dollar, this will be to the benefit of the Canadian currency and economy. Britain's problems may be of passing interest to Mark Carney post-Bank of England, but he will have [nor will he want] any part in addressing them.

George Osborne is a co-culprit with Cameron and Clegg in most of the disastrous aspects of the Coalition and subsequently the Conservatives' economic policies, but it is generally accepted that he alone drove through the decision to bypass Bank of England insiders, and all other Brits who might have had a claim to be considered as Governor of the Bank of England, and opt to advise the Queen to appoint the clever Canadian. Carney was appointed when the policy of Quantitative Easing and low interest rates had been entrenched by the previous management of the Bank, who had reacted to the meltdown of world banking as a crisis of moral hazard until Chancellor Alastair Darling sounded the alarm and compelled them to act positively [if not entirely sensibly]. Since his appointment, in retrospect, Carney has not had much to do. His 'forward looking' comments about the British economy in context, and what the Bank may or may not do about lending and about interest rates have all been falsified by events; to the extent that some journalists have made a joke of his predictive capabilities. He participated in 'project fear', the campaign to scare the British electorate into voting to remain in the European Union even after the continentals had grossly insulted David Cameron [and, by implication the country that he represented] by their contemptuous dismissal of his half-hearted attempt to make the"ever-closer union" less objectionable to sensible Brits. When the referendum result was announced, before there was time for any deep observation of its short-term impact on the economy and on the currency, Carney led his outfit into panicky and wrong decision to lower interest rates further and to continue 'printing money' that the banks could then lend and drive asset prices [especially house prices] ever higher even as real wages continued to fall.

Mark Carney seems a pleasant man, and has a reputation for high intelligence. His record in Canadian banking is excellent: his record at the Bank of England gains him nul points. Later this week he goes to the US ski resort of Jackson Hole to meet the other governors of central banks, with a massive audience of media, to exchange platitudes. The real meetings of central bankers, that matter, occur in the context of the Bank for International Settlements at Berne; and sometimes the governors have influence when they gather with their countries' finance minister in the context of the G20, G8 [or whatever number gather, dependent on which countries are in favour with the USA]. The annual performance at Jackson Hole, beside allowing opportunity for some private chatter and data swapping, allows some more speculative statements to be made. This year, it is expected that the Chair of the US Federal Reserve Board will indicate the approximate scheduling of future interest rate increases; and that the Chairman of the European Central Bank will indicate that it is his organisation's plan to begin policy tightening, within the next year. Carney will have nothing to say. The Bank of England is still stuck like the proverbial rabbit in the headlights, mesmerised by Brexit, Trump and the fear of Britain being alone in the world without a Churchill able to summon up the Few, the Dunkirk Spirit and the resources that were handed to stand-alone Britain by President F D Roosevelt.

Mr Carney's children have already gone back to their Canadian educational institutes, and he will follow them soon. He has learned a lot, but been unable to do anything. His experience in Britain has fitted him better for his future career in Canada; and Britain gained nothing from his presence with us here.

Constitutional Conformity

The absence of a 'written constitution' in the United Kingdom has enabled the political class to elevate the office of Prime Minister to a level where almost all the powers of a medieval monarch are now concentrated in the small clique of people who control the country from the complex of buildings that have a modest front door at 10, Downing Street. The Prime Minister is personally responsible for the actions and statements that emanate from the buildings, though it is manifestly impossible for the responsible individual to produce the required throughput of work personally. Nevertheless, the general tenor of policy and the basic substance of statements must reflect positions that the PM is willing and able to defend.

One of the greatest mistakes that has been made by "number ten" in modern times was the decision to hold the referendum on EU membership of the European Union on June 23, 2016. Having been given the means of showing their contempt for the political class [in London and Brussels, especially] and having been pumped-up with ludicrous scare stories derided as 'project fear', a  narrow majority of the electorate voted to 'leave'. No particular means, terms or conditions for leaving were adumbrated, and this has enabled the 'Brexiteer' minority of Tory MPs insistently to pressure 'number ten' to adopt a perilous path that may well end up with the UK being economically isolated. The isolation of the UK by U-boats in two world wars almost starved the population: economic isolation could have a similar effect. 'Number ten' is not yet aware of that prospect; which probably means that they will sleepwalk towards it.

Meanwhile, in the USA the written Constitution has heavily been researched as this this-skinned, vain and intellectually challenged president displays increasingly challenging behaviour. On taking office, Mr Trump was determined that everyone should believe that his tenure was the most popular in history; hence his and his spokesman's absurd insistence that the crowds who gathered for his inauguration were the biggest ever. More recently, his extreme sensitivity has been shown by his abolition of his consultative bodies with US capitalism as soon as a few members resigned. His remarks about the riots that surrounded the statue of Robert E Lee in a small Virginia town have sparked a major storm, providing leverage for the left-inclined groups who want to be provoked by him to challenge everything that he says or does, and everyone who appears to align themselves with him. It is now a matter of speculation whether he will become bored with criticism to the point where his ego forces him to resign, or whether he will be goaded into actions that qualify for impeachment.

In both the USA and the UK there are campaigns to demolish statues of colonialists or slave owners from past eras, and to remove their names from the schools, colleges and hospitals that they founded. In some colleges, History, Sociology and Politics have degenerated into shouting-matches where 'white men' are blamed - as such - for all the misfortunes that have befallen 'white' women and men whose skin colour includes any hint of genes that are not definable as 'white European'. Academic institutions have been captured by people who promote these ridiculous non-historical assertions, and where any dissent is suppressed.

Women and minorities [including the men in many white minority groups] have been oppressed all over the world through many centuries; but such oppression is less prevalent now that it ever has been in the countries that one would recognise as being constitutionally democratic. It is possible to construct an argument that Robert E Lee was leading a campaign for states' rights, as a legal principle. The fact that victory for the Confederacy would have enabled him and his officers to keep their slaves is undeniable; but it can be argued away as a subsidiary matter to the constitutional principle. It suits the new left in the USA to ignore the constitutional issue altogether, and just to concentrate on the history of oppression and the perceived need to eradicate oppression [and all memorials to its perpetrators]. In so doing, they are prepared to use undemocratic and unconstitutional means to make their point: and thus they bring up the danger that extra-constitutional 'direct action' can be justified. President Trump is displaying an ability to fan the flames of such a movement, and could thus become very dangerous indeed. His way of defending the Constitution could endanger it.