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Friday, 29 August 2014

Cameron Can't Do It!

One Conservative MP, described as a loner, has resigned to become a UKIP candidate for parliament. This has exposed the brittleness of the argument in the Tory Party as to whether David Cameron is telling the truth about renegotiating Britain's relationship with the European Union before putting to the British people a 'yes/no' Referendum on membership of the Union.

The Prime Minister may be telling the truth, but he deceives himself if he thinks that there will be any significant change in the Union at the behest of the United Kingdom [with or without Scotland]. 26 countries are not going to agree to any significant changes just to help David Cameron. Insofar as they think about the UK at all, they assume that the Brits will never vote for exit from the Union because they'll get too scared at the prospect of having to go it alone in a very difficult world.

Even more fantastic is David Cameron's apparent belief that the Conservatives can be at least the biggest party in the House of Commons after the 2015 election. Whatever the Scots decide, their Westminster MPs will sit at least until 2016: so the odds are in favour of Labour being the largest party despite their agonising leadership. UKIP strength and credibility is increasing, and it is now too late for Cameron to reverse his position and reach an electoral accommodation with Nigel Farage: so the Tories will lose seats. Cameron will not even be able to ask for a 'renegotiation' because he won't be the Prime Minister; so he need not have any terms for a negotiation that will never happen. He'll never need to say.

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