Today the Institute of Chartered Accountants (ICAEW) and the Confederation of British Industry tell us that employers' optimism is high about the future of their businesses. The government data report that more people are in employment in the UK than ever before; but that industrial output and exports are still below the already-low level at which they stood in the fake boom of 2006. There is no good news here for the real economy.
Consumers' borrowing, especially for house purchases and imported goods, has increased while total bank lending has declined; pointing to the fact that lending to develop manufacturing firms' facilities, and their export. markets is stagnant or even declining. Indicators of business confidence are up to the level last seen in 1988, the year that was followed by the slump of the early 'nineties which saw huge falls in house prices, not least in London.
Thus the portents are bad, not good.
This issue in explained in my book SINKING BRITAIN which can be accessed via this blog site.
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