The President of the USA is due to arrive in China today. It has been much heralded as the first great occasion when the newly enhanced President Xi will be able to demonstrate his mastery of the regime and the magnificence of the show that can be put on for Mr Trump.
In the run up to this visit, Trump has been forced to recognise that there is a very longstanding and close alliance between Russia and China. He has admitted that any plan more tightly to contain North Korea depends almost equally on the two powers that have land borders with that 'rogue state'. While China has been the main supplier of essential imports to the Pyongyang regime, Russia has also been a friendly facilitator over many years.
There is little room for doubt that both China and Russia are sorry that North Korea has developed its nuclear capabilities so far that Kim can be bombastic to the USA: and, by implication, a major nuisance to Russia and to China. On the other hand, they have noted both Trump's reciprocal bombast towards Pyongyang and his deeply ambiguous situation in regard to Russia.
As Secretary of State and as a presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton took a high moral stand on Russia's adventurism in the Ukraine, both the Donbass region and Crimea: she was a major influence on the introduction of sanctions that have affected Russia's trade and the general standard of living of the population negatively and [in a few areas] dramatically. Hence, Russia used all the covert means at its disposal [which are vast] to ensure that Trump had the best chance possible in the general election one year ago. It is very doubtful whether the mass of Russian intervention in any way swayed the election result which, like the Brexit vote in the UK, reflected the despair of swathes of US voters at the failure of the economic and social systems to maintain the American Dream in the rustbucket. The sheer originality - which the literati dismiss as the absurdity - of Trump's approach was combined with a deeply instinctive populism to grab people's attention and stimulate the enthusiasm of the 'forgotten people' in pockets right across the USA. It is noteworthy that Bernie Saunders almost hit the same note from a different pitch, in enthusing the metropolitan young: against him Hillary Clinton displayed increasingly platitudinous arrogance, shouting instead of speaking and thus diminishing any impact that her actual sentences might have achieved.
Russia and China have doubtless agreed a common approach to Trump; based on flattery interspersed with spoonfulls of bitter realism. Mr Xi will spend the next couple of days honouring and further educating the US president. President Putin will be in the same room with them in the following days at the pan-Pacific conference, and it is there, rather than Beijing, that any new understanding on how to deal with North Korea will be agreed.
At the end of the Gorbachev years I twice made the [supposedly] direct flight from Moscow to Beijing, which each time made a heavy - unannounced - landing in Novosibirsk. This was necessary because the old Illyushin aircraft could not carry enough fuel for a non-stop journey. Both times the most conspicuous cohort of passengers were people with massive bags full of empty bags; whose business was to buy up whatever consumer goods were available from the new workshop-factories in China and take them back to Moscow in their many bags. They had a hard time with Russian customs on the way home [doubtless lessened by cash handouts when the KGB turned a blind eye] but their trade was highly lucrative. Russia has never facilitated the sort of entrepreneurial activity that enabled China to build up its balance of payments surplus with the industrial west, and is still largely dependent on China to supply the everyday manufactured goods that middle England takes for granted [and which mostly come into Britain from the emergent economies, not least China]. In exchange for this mass of imports - which are no longer imported by individual chancers as they were in the 'nineties - Russia can pay in oil and other materials; and by allowing Chinese firms to become farming contractors, mostly in the far east where the supply of Russian labour and enterprise are most thinly stretched.
Russia and China are hugely and closely inter-dependent all along the longest international border in the world. This interdependence was slightly set back by the extremities of the Cultural Revolution in China, and then by the economic chaos that followed from the collapse of the USSR. But the long northern border of Russia with China - right to the very eastern point of the Asian mainland - remains, even though other former-soviet republics now border China to the west. The two economies are even more closely symbiotic than that of Canada with the USA, and there will be no room for doubt that the briefings given to President Trump will have emphasised the point. To general surprise, 'The Donald' appears to have been paying more attention to his briefings of late than he did in his early days in office. He is to be watched, closely, over both his days in Beijing and in the ensuing wider conference. Great-power politics could well be reshaped; with North Korea as the carcass to be picked over; rather than the existential threat that it appeared to be in White House demonology just a month ago.
Showing posts with label President Xi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label President Xi. Show all posts
Wednesday, 8 November 2017
Sunday, 5 November 2017
Corruption Catch-All
In the coming week I will revert to the theme of the Russian Revolutions and their consequences; but the overnight News about Saudi Arabia, combined with discussions of the current situation in China as President Trump attends the apotheosis of President Xi, raises an omnipresent global issue.
The Saudi Crown Prince has emerged in that role after an elaborate process to bring [at last] a grandson of the hugely prolific founder of the country, Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, into the pole position to be the next king: the first of the next generation to have a high degree of probability of succeeding to the notionally absolutely powerful top position. From the nineteen fifties until now a succession of sons of the first king, by a succession of his wives [many of whom were sisters, cousins and other close relations of each other], have held the post; but the lastborn among them are now in extreme old age. There is probably a registrar of the dynasty who knows exactly how many princes and princesses there are, including the offspring of Ibn Saud's brothers; many of whom are intermarried with each other. The international media report their number to be some thousands as, unlike the British Royal Family, all the family members have royal titles.
The contrasting British position is that sons and daughters of monarchs are princes and princesses, but that children of princesses and children of daughters of the monarch's sons and sons of the sons of the monarch who do not stand in the direct line of succession are not princes or princesses. Thus the children of Princess Anne, and of the Dukes of Gloucester and Kent [sons of sons of George V] are not princes or princesses. This keeps the 'inner' or 'close' royal family manageably small.
The contrasting situation in Saudi Arabia means that these thousands of royal persons expect high status and high incomes; which were affordable when the family was smaller, the oil price was higher and the monarchy was able to use its position as the 'swing producer' in OPEC to enforce the price control system that they established in 1973. With ever-more royalty and shrinking oil prices as Russia increases its influence as an oil producer and fracking develops in the USA, the Saudi model of the past century is redundant. The new Crown Prince has spent the last two years securing his position among this thousands of cousins, and is now making moves to modernise the system. There are bound to be winners and losers from such a revolution, and alliances have been formed that may or may not prove strong enough for the Crown Prince to consolidate his position for a reign of up to half a century. He has now made the big move: the arrest of dozens of individuals [including several royalty] some of whom have been ministers in the government: all of them charged with corruption.
In a system like the Saudi, where the term Byzantine denotes a situation insufficiently arcane to explain the regime in operation, almost anybody - high or lowly in terms of hierarchy - can be charged with what a German or a Belgian would recognise to be corrupt practice. Charges of corruption will be upheld against many [if not all] of the arrested parties; and the purge can go on indefinitely, as in the Stalin era in the USSR where ever-wider definitions of crimes against the state can be used simply to keep all the survivors in a state of abject subordination to the dominant power. It will be the greatest challenge for the Crown Prince, if he succeeds i holding his position through this exercise, to stop when the purge has gone far enough.
President Xi's situation in China is similar to that which the Crown Prince clearly intends to prevail in Saudi Arabia. In his first five-year term as head of the party and head of state Xi has ensured that nobody stands to challenge him during the coming five years in a way that could ensure that he is forced to stand down after his second quinquennium. China's rise to wealth has been faster and much more broadly-based than in the case of Saudi Arabia. The control of the country by the party has meant that the power-brokers in every region have been able to grant and deny licenses and permissions for every kind of activity; thus successful individuals in the buccaneering capitalism that has emerged have necessarily squared themselves with the power structure. Some people in power have held to the standards of Confucian and Leninist integrity that have been expected of them: some have not. Some can have cases manufactured against them, in what is ultimately a dictatorship: some guilty people can be so useful to the top men that their crimes can - pro tem , at least - be ignored.
Precisely the same sorts of process are happening in China and Saudi: the consolidation of the power of the dictator is secured - and gains at least a good measure of popular support - by bringing guilty exploiters of public office to account. Simple!
The Saudi Crown Prince has emerged in that role after an elaborate process to bring [at last] a grandson of the hugely prolific founder of the country, Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, into the pole position to be the next king: the first of the next generation to have a high degree of probability of succeeding to the notionally absolutely powerful top position. From the nineteen fifties until now a succession of sons of the first king, by a succession of his wives [many of whom were sisters, cousins and other close relations of each other], have held the post; but the lastborn among them are now in extreme old age. There is probably a registrar of the dynasty who knows exactly how many princes and princesses there are, including the offspring of Ibn Saud's brothers; many of whom are intermarried with each other. The international media report their number to be some thousands as, unlike the British Royal Family, all the family members have royal titles.
The contrasting British position is that sons and daughters of monarchs are princes and princesses, but that children of princesses and children of daughters of the monarch's sons and sons of the sons of the monarch who do not stand in the direct line of succession are not princes or princesses. Thus the children of Princess Anne, and of the Dukes of Gloucester and Kent [sons of sons of George V] are not princes or princesses. This keeps the 'inner' or 'close' royal family manageably small.
The contrasting situation in Saudi Arabia means that these thousands of royal persons expect high status and high incomes; which were affordable when the family was smaller, the oil price was higher and the monarchy was able to use its position as the 'swing producer' in OPEC to enforce the price control system that they established in 1973. With ever-more royalty and shrinking oil prices as Russia increases its influence as an oil producer and fracking develops in the USA, the Saudi model of the past century is redundant. The new Crown Prince has spent the last two years securing his position among this thousands of cousins, and is now making moves to modernise the system. There are bound to be winners and losers from such a revolution, and alliances have been formed that may or may not prove strong enough for the Crown Prince to consolidate his position for a reign of up to half a century. He has now made the big move: the arrest of dozens of individuals [including several royalty] some of whom have been ministers in the government: all of them charged with corruption.
In a system like the Saudi, where the term Byzantine denotes a situation insufficiently arcane to explain the regime in operation, almost anybody - high or lowly in terms of hierarchy - can be charged with what a German or a Belgian would recognise to be corrupt practice. Charges of corruption will be upheld against many [if not all] of the arrested parties; and the purge can go on indefinitely, as in the Stalin era in the USSR where ever-wider definitions of crimes against the state can be used simply to keep all the survivors in a state of abject subordination to the dominant power. It will be the greatest challenge for the Crown Prince, if he succeeds i holding his position through this exercise, to stop when the purge has gone far enough.
President Xi's situation in China is similar to that which the Crown Prince clearly intends to prevail in Saudi Arabia. In his first five-year term as head of the party and head of state Xi has ensured that nobody stands to challenge him during the coming five years in a way that could ensure that he is forced to stand down after his second quinquennium. China's rise to wealth has been faster and much more broadly-based than in the case of Saudi Arabia. The control of the country by the party has meant that the power-brokers in every region have been able to grant and deny licenses and permissions for every kind of activity; thus successful individuals in the buccaneering capitalism that has emerged have necessarily squared themselves with the power structure. Some people in power have held to the standards of Confucian and Leninist integrity that have been expected of them: some have not. Some can have cases manufactured against them, in what is ultimately a dictatorship: some guilty people can be so useful to the top men that their crimes can - pro tem , at least - be ignored.
Precisely the same sorts of process are happening in China and Saudi: the consolidation of the power of the dictator is secured - and gains at least a good measure of popular support - by bringing guilty exploiters of public office to account. Simple!
Sunday, 24 September 2017
China's Opportunity to Defuse Trump
China - the political masters of that country, to be precise - well understands that the North Koreans' unexpectedly rapid development of nuclear weapons capability is largely their fault; or, at the very least, their default.
The 'received wisdom' in foreign ministries around the world is that China is now locked in to a crisis that it has allowed to happen. China has limited [and 'interpreted'] UN sanctions in a way that has allowed the Kim regime to survive; most notably by allowing petroleum products to enter the country. This is said to be due to China's terror at what would happen if the regime collapsed. Starvation and anarchy would be very quick results of the collapse. There is said to be a fear that in such circumstances South Korea would step in to supply the people of the north, and thus be on the way to 'reunifying' the country on a capitalist basis: which would be anathema to China, and a great shame for the president who has begun to permit the media to liken him to the [still-sacrosanct] Chairman Mao.
More likely is the scenario that the regime would be able to tighten its grip even as the cessation of food and energy supplies [in a savage winter] picked off millions of already undernourished people. In such circumstances the rhetoric against the USA, as the perceived authors of the country's misfortunes [due to sanctions], would increase: and with it the prospect of nuclear adventurism from the Kim regime. The naive narcissist in the White House has recently had his image toned down by the largely-military cohort who now surround him. With the strong assistance of the Secretary of State, he can often appear reasonable; and this makes it unlikely that in the near future he could be declared unfit to continue in office. Thus the risk of a first strike by the US increases. The recent threat by the North Koreans to detonate a hydrogen bomb 'over the Pacific' has increased the probability of disaster greatly.
Were the US to deploy nuclear weapons against North Korea [and so far they are the only power to have done this in a real war] the fallout would certainly reach China, Russia and South Korea. This prospect is imminent.
There is an obvious solution. China has facilitated the North Korean weapons programme, and done nothing effective to tame the regime: or even its rhetoric. President Xi can stand tall as a statesman comparable with [and morally much superior to] Mao, by taking drastic, swift action. China should first seal the frontier with North Korea: then send in overwhelming forces to occupy the country. As it does so, it should call on the United Nations to send in a control team to supervise the neutralisation of the nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
As soon as those conditions are met, a joint command formed by - and led by - China, comprising the permanent members of the Security Council with the other 'brics' [India, Brazil and - perhaps - South Korea] should establish the preconditions for a reformation of the North Korean state. A safe haven could be offered to the dictator, perhaps in Switzerland which he knows from his schooldays: there is no reason to believe that he is mad, and assurances of personal security might be acceptable. Of course, for as long as lives, wherever he lives, victims of his regime and their children will [understandably] wish him harm: so he will never live in secure comfort.
Such a resolution would completely overcome Trump's posturing and rhetoric. It is arguably President Xi's duty to resolve the drastic dilemma that his country's hesitancy has fostered: and it can be the basis for real greatness.
The 'received wisdom' in foreign ministries around the world is that China is now locked in to a crisis that it has allowed to happen. China has limited [and 'interpreted'] UN sanctions in a way that has allowed the Kim regime to survive; most notably by allowing petroleum products to enter the country. This is said to be due to China's terror at what would happen if the regime collapsed. Starvation and anarchy would be very quick results of the collapse. There is said to be a fear that in such circumstances South Korea would step in to supply the people of the north, and thus be on the way to 'reunifying' the country on a capitalist basis: which would be anathema to China, and a great shame for the president who has begun to permit the media to liken him to the [still-sacrosanct] Chairman Mao.
More likely is the scenario that the regime would be able to tighten its grip even as the cessation of food and energy supplies [in a savage winter] picked off millions of already undernourished people. In such circumstances the rhetoric against the USA, as the perceived authors of the country's misfortunes [due to sanctions], would increase: and with it the prospect of nuclear adventurism from the Kim regime. The naive narcissist in the White House has recently had his image toned down by the largely-military cohort who now surround him. With the strong assistance of the Secretary of State, he can often appear reasonable; and this makes it unlikely that in the near future he could be declared unfit to continue in office. Thus the risk of a first strike by the US increases. The recent threat by the North Koreans to detonate a hydrogen bomb 'over the Pacific' has increased the probability of disaster greatly.
Were the US to deploy nuclear weapons against North Korea [and so far they are the only power to have done this in a real war] the fallout would certainly reach China, Russia and South Korea. This prospect is imminent.
There is an obvious solution. China has facilitated the North Korean weapons programme, and done nothing effective to tame the regime: or even its rhetoric. President Xi can stand tall as a statesman comparable with [and morally much superior to] Mao, by taking drastic, swift action. China should first seal the frontier with North Korea: then send in overwhelming forces to occupy the country. As it does so, it should call on the United Nations to send in a control team to supervise the neutralisation of the nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
As soon as those conditions are met, a joint command formed by - and led by - China, comprising the permanent members of the Security Council with the other 'brics' [India, Brazil and - perhaps - South Korea] should establish the preconditions for a reformation of the North Korean state. A safe haven could be offered to the dictator, perhaps in Switzerland which he knows from his schooldays: there is no reason to believe that he is mad, and assurances of personal security might be acceptable. Of course, for as long as lives, wherever he lives, victims of his regime and their children will [understandably] wish him harm: so he will never live in secure comfort.
Such a resolution would completely overcome Trump's posturing and rhetoric. It is arguably President Xi's duty to resolve the drastic dilemma that his country's hesitancy has fostered: and it can be the basis for real greatness.
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